Bitcoin has increased by 80% since the beginning of the year. Historical data shows that nearing the time of the halving event, this currency will enter a bull run phase. There is still nearly a year until Bitcoin undergoes the important halving event, which could trigger the rise in the value of this currency. The next halving is expected to take place in April or May 2024.
The bottom of 2023 crypto winter
Bitcoin has been on the rise in the past few weeks amid various fluctuations: predictions about the halving event combined with the possibility of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the face of weak economic growth and tightening credit conditions due to recent upheavals in the banking sector.
In the mid of April 2023, Bitcoin climbed to around $30,000, according to data from CoinGecko, an increase of over 80% since the beginning of the year.
Halving and uptrend
In the next halving, the reward for miners will decrease to 3.125 Bitcoin.
The most recent halving occurred on May 11, 2020, and Bitcoin’s price increased 19% in the 12 months prior, from $7,191.36 USD to $8,568.88 USD, according to data from CCData.
The previous halving, which occurred on July 9, 2016, saw Bitcoin increase by 142% over the preceding 12 months, from $269.14 to $651.83 USD.
The first halving on November 28, 2012, saw Bitcoin’s price increase by 384% to $12.35 USD from $2.55 USD.
In the past, the period of accumulation from the market bottom after a breakout to the halving event typically lasted for at least 500 days.
Assuming that the market bottom for this cycle occurred in November of last year (when Bitcoin hit its lowest level at $15,760), the current cycle has only 6 months remaining. This is in line with the expected date of the next Bitcoin halving, which is in 1 year.
Moreover, Bitcoin tends to experience even greater price increases in the months following a halving.
Following the halving on May 11, 2020, Bitcoin increased by 688.31% in the following 546 days, reaching an all-time high of $67,549.14 on November 8, 2021. During the previous halving event on July 9, 2016, Bitcoin surged by 2,824% to an all-time high of $19,065.71 in mid-December 2017
Next halving estimation
If this repeats in the upcoming halving, Bitcoin will approach the range of $55,000 - $60,000, which is equivalent to an increase of about 100% from its current price level.
Bitcoin’s next halving event is expected to take place on April 5, 2024, and there are predictions that this could trigger a significant increase in the value of the cryptocurrency. According to historical data, nearing the time of the halving event, Bitcoin enters a bull run phase, which could lead to a surge in price.
For example, the most recent halving event occurred on May 11, 2020, and in the 12 months leading up to it, Bitcoin’s price increased by 19%, from $7,191.36 USD to $8,568.88 USD. Following the halving, Bitcoin experienced a surge in price, increasing by 688.31% in the following 546 days, reaching an all-time high of $67,549.14 on November 8, 2021.
In addition, Bitcoin tends to experience even greater price increases in the months following a halving event. During the previous halving event on July 9, 2016, Bitcoin surged by 2,824% to an all-time high of $19,065.71 in mid-December 2017.
If this trend repeats during the upcoming halving, Bitcoin could approach the range of $55,000 - $60,000, which is equivalent to an increase of about 100% from its current price level.
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